Should we be Scared? The US May be in a Blackout for 18 Month.
By Dani Craftworks
(Image from WallPaperCave)
One day I was just scrolling on YouTube to watch something random to decompress from a busy day at work, and I came across a Youtuber named, Shanya Conde, a journalist who makes content about child-free living, decentering men, femmes, and people with uteruses (if you want to check her out, you can click on her name to watch any channels from her). She discussed about this two weeks ago, when she was watching a TikToker named, John Ridgeway, where he was discussing about news outlets predicting that there might be a power outage in the US that will last for 18 months, because of the power grids were not being updated. They both gave their point about the situation. I wanted to look further into the varies news outlets that touched on this topic, who are the experts that they are refereeing to, and the main question: should be scared or get ready?
Where did This Information Came From?
From the New York Post and MSN, the alarm was sent out by former chair of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Jon Wellinghoff, after a coordinated attack on a California electrical substation in April 2013 (Nesi, 2026). From Yahoo News, they brought up that it took 19 minutes for the gunman to disable 17 giant transformers at PG&E’s (Pacific Gas and Electric’s Metcalf electrical substation (Nesi, 2026)) power plant offline near San Jose – firing roughly 120 shots and targeting cooling systems before disappearing into the night (Barrientos, 2026). From BPR (Biz Pac Review), that brought up that it was New York Times Magazine that reported about the Metcalf attack that occurred in 2013 (that also had a link to the report on New York Times Magazine that couldn’t get to, because I had to pay to read the report, so that’s that), where the gunman was an unknown rifle-wielding shooters targeting their cooling systems, and also cut communication lines (Saxena, 2026). Also, the shooting caused oil to leak (Saxena, 2026). The utility workers spend 27 days restoring that single substation (Barrientos, 2026). Jon Wellinghoff conducted a power flow analysis that modeled the large-scale impacts of disabling the most critical substation in each of America’s three power grids: the Western, Eastern, and Texas interconnections (Dawson, 2026). Wellinghoff said, “We came up with some very astounding numbers” (Nesi, 2026).
The memo gave a stark warning that a blackout caused by lost transformers could last 18 months or longer (Dawson, 2026). Followed up with the Department of Homeland Security sent representatives across the country urging utilities to increase security at substations (Dawson, 2026).
(Image from WallPaperCave)
Destroying high-voltage transformers doesn’t just cut power; it destroys the equipment that takes years to replace under the best conditions (Barrientos, 2026). Ordering a replacement is not like placing an Amazon or Uber Eats order. Some of these units weigh upwards 500,000 pounds (Barrientos, 2026). According to a CISA-hosted NIAC draft report, some transformer order takes between 2 and 41 days, and one major U.S. manufacturer disclosed a five-year wait for new orders alone (Barrientos, 2026). Wood Mackenzie, a global leader in data, analytics and insights for the energy and natural resources industry, data shows lead times jumped from roughly 50 weeks (11 months) in 2021 to 120 weeks on average in 2024, with large transformers ranging from 80 to 210 weeks (18 to 48 months) (Barrientos, 2026). Generator step-up units average 143 to 144 weeks (32 to 33 months) (Barrientos, 2026).
In addition to the length of replacing transformer, the United States doesn’t make enough transformers; most of them come from overseas and the waiting times could take years (Saxena, 2026).
Following the memo, the Department of Homeland Security sent representatives across the country to urge for an increase at substations (Dawson, 2026). However, Caitilin Duerkovich, former assistant secretary for infrastructure protection, admitted that “there is awareness that you can’t protect everything,” in reference to the 55,000 substations built across the country (Barrientos, 2026).
A year later, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, an industry-led public-private organization tasked with protecting the grid, published a “reliability standard” for utilities (Barrientos, 2026). Basically, requiring them to assess their substations and prepare a plan to defend them against physical attacks, leaving it to the utilities to carry out the assessments (Barrientos, 2026).
If the U.S. power grid were to experience an 18-month long blackout, there would be a catastrophic effect on hospitals, sewage plants, and water treatment plants (Barrientos, 2026). Food insecurity would eventually become an issue, and obviously general population would lose something very important and might not live without; is the internet and telephone access, while the economy would eventually be crippled (Barrientos, 2026). The U.S. would have to rely on international aid for food aid and water supply, and that coordination with other countries would be challenging (if you see how our government is handling international relationship with other countries) (Barrientos, 2026).
The Experts they are Refereeing to?
The person who you kept seeing repeatedly in the first part of the article was Jon Wellinghoff. So based on his account on Linkedin, Jon Wellinghoff is an internationally recognized expert and thought leader in energy policy, electric grid operations and markets, and the interface of disruptive energy systems with traditional utility structures. He has a firm called GridPolicy, Inc. is dedicated to furthering the developing and investing in clean sustainable distributed energy recourses (DER) and efficient grid enhancing technologies (GET). He is the Chief Regulatory Officer of Voltus, Inc., the world’s leading platform for DERs. In 2006, Wellinghoff received his first of two Presidential appointments to serve as a Commissioner on the FERC; by Former President George W. Bush and was designated by the Former President Barack Obama, in 2009 to Chairman of FERC (Unknown, n.d.). The longest time serving in the FERC Chairman from 2009-2013. In 2016, the Public Utilities Fortnightly named Wellingtonhoff one of the 10 individuals since 1990 who have had the greatest impact on the electric utility industry.
Caitlin Duerkovich, but on Linkedin it shows her name as Caitlin Durkovich. So I think one of the articles made an error or I found the wrong profile on Linkedin. All we know about her is that she was the former assistant secretary for infrastructure protection, who admitted that the 55,000 substations built in this country cannot protect everything when it comes to security and protection.
Tim Holt (we’ll get to later), on Linkedin, is a member os the Executive Board and Labor Director at Siemens Energy, and Kellogg Executive Education. He is responsible for the Grid Technologies business and Human Resources in the North and Latin American region. He has been working in this industry for 30 years.
Should we be Scared About?
Well yeah, it makes sense to be scared and worried that this may be our future because of how we have gotten used to having the constant used of technology, WiFi, and people using the internet for recreational purposes to their whole job. So, this would be a catastrophe, especially when you see how much electrical usage that is consumed in the U.S. on a yearly basis (US Energy Information Administration(EIA)) (Nesi, 2026). You should be scared, but you shouldn’t be scared that we all are doing a repeat of what happened back in 2020 (IYKYK). Just be vigilant and prep up before the day comes.
After EIA, show the numbers of how much electricity is consumed, Tim Holt, who’s in charge of grid technology for Siemens Energy, told outlet that it’s expected to get even worse, and with a transformer demand in 2027 on pace to more than double the demand seen in 2020 (Nesi, 2026). He adds on with, “In the next 15 years, we’re going to spend as much on the grid as we have spent in the last 150 years,” (Nesi, 2026).
(Image from WallPaperCave)
People are just worried after hear about superstorm that hit Indianna, living many people in the Indianna and across the Midwest without power and the people in Puerto Rico without power for a long period of time. If you want to keep track of the power outage in Indianna (number of people without power in Indianna) and on Puerto Rico (number of people without power in Puerto Rico)
Even though this is very frightening news, one thing that I couldn’t get over is this information feels kind of random, do you think. If you tried to find the information about the sniper or snipers in this incident back in 2013, you will get a mixture of different outputs or results about the “Metcalf incident”. To the 2013 Metcalf incident to the AI showing results of a Pittsburgh Steelers named DK Metcalf, took a swing at a fan in December 21, 2025, and the trail of Austin Metcalf and Karmelo Anthony. But, very little about the sniper and who this sniper was affiliated with. Do you think that this is suspicious of a security reason to protect the public from knowing the identity of the sniper in the 2013 Metcalf incident? Or the person name is out there and I might have missed it?
What is the takeaway from all of this?
Based on the information that is going on, all we have to do is be prepared and vigilant. Not to let our emotions get better and have us buy unnecessary amounts of toilet paper. Keep a close eye and ear on certain information you are getting, look up and see if it’s legit or not, and do not allow fearmongering to take control of your life. If you want to have more discussions or post like this, let me know in the comments section and remember to stay safe out there.
Works Cited
Barrientos, A. (2026, August 25). Expert Warns U.S. Grid Could Face an 18-Month Blackout Scenario. Retrieved from Yahoo: https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/expert-warns-u-grid-could-185554431.html
Dawson, A. (2026, August 19). US at risk of 18-month long blackouts that could extend across the country, expert claims. Retrieved from MSN: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/us-at-risk-of-18-month-long-blackouts-that-could-extend-across-the-country-expert-claims/ar-AA2asUip
Nesi, C. (2026, August 19). Shockingly vulnerable US power grid could result in 18-month nationwide blackout, expert warns. Retrieved from New York Post: https://nypost.com/2026/08/19/us-news/shockingly-vulnerable-us-power-grid-could-result-in-18-month-nationwide-blackout-expert-warns/
Saxena, V. (2026, August 2026). Could America really lose power for 18 months? The warning is chilling. Retrieved from Biz Pac Review: https://www.bizpacreview.com/2026/08/19/could-america-really-lose-power-for-18-months-the-warning-is-chilling-1655501/
Unknown. (n.d.). Jon Wellinghoff. Retrieved from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Wellinghoff
